ABSTRACT

We assess empirically the role that uncertainty plays as a determinant of business cycle synchronization dynamics in the European Monetary Union. Using a time-varying measure of business cycle synchronization and Bayesian model averaging methods, we find that increase in uncertainty tends to robustly predict desynchronization, in particular for countries whose business cycles are not in line with those of the rest of the monetary union.

中文翻译：

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欧洲的不确定性和商业周期同步

摘要

我们凭经验评估不确定性在欧洲货币联盟中作为商业周期同步动态的决定因素所起的作用。使用商业周期同步的时变测量和贝叶斯模型平均方法，我们发现不确定性的增加往往会有力地预测去同步化，特别是对于那些商业周期与货币联盟其他国家不一致的国家。