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Identifying crime generators and spatially overlapping high‐risk areas through a nonlinear model: A comparison between three cities of the Valencian region (Spain)
Statistica Neerlandica ( IF 1.4 ) Pub Date : 2021-06-29 , DOI: 10.1111/stan.12254
Álvaro Briz‐Redón 1 , Jorge Mateu 2 , Francisco Montes 3
Affiliation  

The behavior and spatial distribution of crime events can be explained through the characterization of an area in terms of its demography, socioeconomy, and built environment. In particular, recent studies on the incidence of crime in a city have focused on the identification of features of the built environment (specific places or facilities) that may increase crime risk within a certain radius. However, it is hard to identify environmental characteristics that consistently explain crime occurrence across cities and crime types. This article focuses on the assessment of the effect that certain types of places have on the incidence of property crime, robbery, and vandalism in three cities of the Valencian region (Spain): Alicante, Castellon, and Valencia. A nonlinear effects model is used to identify such places and to construct a risk map over the three cities considering the three crime types under research. The results obtained suggest that there are remarkable differences across cities and crime types in terms of the types of places associated with crime outcomes. The identification of high-risk areas allows verifying that crime is highly concentrated, and also that there is a high level of spatial overlap between the high-risk areas corresponding to different crime types.

中文翻译:

通过非线性模型识别犯罪源和空间重叠的高风险区域:巴伦西亚地区三个城市之间的比较(西班牙)

犯罪事件的行为和空间分布可以通过一个地区的人口学、社会经济和建筑环境的特征来解释。特别是,最近关于城市犯罪发生率的研究集中在识别可能在一定半径内增加犯罪风险的建筑环境(特定地点或设施)的特征。然而,很难确定能够始终如一地解释跨城市和犯罪类型的犯罪发生的环境特征。本文重点评估某些类型的地方对瓦伦西亚地区(西班牙)三个城市(阿利坎特、卡斯特利翁和瓦伦西亚)的财产犯罪、抢劫和故意破坏的发生率的影响。考虑到正在研究的三种犯罪类型,非线性效应模型用于识别这些地方并构建三个城市的风险图。所得结果表明,就与犯罪结果相关的地点类型而言,不同城市和犯罪类型之间存在显着差异。高风险区域的识别可以验证犯罪高度集中,以及不同犯罪类型对应的高风险区域之间存在高度的空间重叠。
更新日期:2021-06-29
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