ABSTRACT

How should political leaders be evaluated? This article reviews existing approaches and argues that they are insufficiently developed to map the more complex policy effects of political leaders, since they tend to focus on electoral and broader regime level outcomes. In response, it maps out a layered framework based on scientific realism. The layered approach argues that analysis should focus on the effects of leaders within societal structures, formal political institutions, the framing of policy problems as well as policy. The approach requires that we are sensitive to the structure and agency relationships between layers when identifying where leaders brought about policy and political change, as well as the effects on the international system and on other polities. It is proposed that the new approach will help to develop a more complete and nuanced understanding of the policy effects of leaders that will uncover their effects in hidden spaces as well as broader societal shifts.

摘要

如何评价政治领袖？本文回顾了现有的方法，并认为它们没有充分发展以描绘政治领导人更复杂的政策影响，因为它们往往侧重于选举和更广泛的政权层面的结果。作为回应，它制定了一个基于科学现实主义的分层框架。分层方法认为，分析应侧重于社会结构、正式政治机构、政策问题的框架以及政策中领导人的影响。该方法要求我们在确定领导人在何处带来政策和政治变革以及对国际体系和其他政体的影响时，对各层之间的结构和代理关系保持敏感。