The literature on microcredit programs has largely focused on positive socioeconomic outcomes and low accessibility issues in farming areas and has provided less insight into the effects of easily acquired microcredit in pastoral areas. Using a case study approach, and econometric models, this paper addresses this gap by examining why and how easily acquired microcredit loans in Inner Mongolian pastoral areas increase the risk to the financial security of households or livelihood risk. Results show that existing microcredit programs increase livelihood risk because loan and repayment requirements do not align with the husbandry production cycle of contemporary Inner Mongolian pastoralists. This misalignment forces pastoralists to borrow from usurers to repay bank loans. Furthermore, households that need to borrow from usurers typically own smaller numbers of livestock and are less likely to be able to repay the usurers by selling animals. Instead, they tend to increase their bank loans in the coming year to repay the previous year’s debt, trapping them in a vicious and ultimately impoverishing circle of annual loans they cannot fully pay back, and feeding increasing debt. We suggest that microcredit programs in semiarid areas should be in sync with the local production cycle and recognize environmental constraints that cause high variation in production seasonally and year to year. Our results supplement previous findings on microcredit applications and are particularly pertinent for other semiarid areas of the world.

有关小额信贷计划的文献主要关注农业地区积极的社会经济成果和难以获得的问题，而很少深入了解容易获得的小额信贷对牧区的影响。本文采用案例研究方法和计量经济学模型，通过研究内蒙古牧区小额信贷为何以及如何容易获得增加家庭财务安全风险或生计风险来解决这一差距。结果表明，现有的小额信贷计划增加了生计风险，因为贷款和还款要求与当代内蒙古牧民的畜牧生产周期不相符。这种失调迫使牧民向高利贷者借款来偿还银行贷款。此外，需要向高利贷者借款的家庭通常拥有较少数量的牲畜，并且不太可能通过出售动物来偿还高利贷者。相反，他们往往会在来年增加银行贷款来偿还上一年的债务，从而陷入无法全额偿还年度贷款的恶性循环，最终陷入贫困，并助长了不断增加的债务。我们建议，半干旱地区的小额信贷计划应与当地生产周期同步，并认识到导致生产季节性和年度变化较大的环境限制。我们的结果补充了之前关于小额信贷应用的研究结果，并且对于世界其他半干旱地区特别相关。