This paper investigates the impact of financial conditions, for example, cross-border capital flows, interest rates and foreign exchange rates, on the well-being of the real estate developers in five Association of Southeast Asian Nations economies. The study uses a Bottom-up Default Analysis model to stress test their creditworthiness by reproducing the financial shocks during the global financial crisis, taper tantrum, and the U.S.-China trade war and COVID-19 pandemic. The median developers remain sound under the prescribed adversities. The performance is underpinned by their strong fundamentals and a conducive mix of monetary, foreign exchange, and open capital account policies by national authorities.

中文翻译：

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金融状况和房地产行业的福祉——对东盟五个经济体的自下而上的违约分析

本文调查了金融条件（例如跨境资本流动、利率和汇率）对五个东南亚国家联盟经济体中房地产开发商的福祉的影响。该研究使用自下而上的违约分析模型，通过重现全球金融危机、缩减恐慌、美中贸易战和 COVID-19 大流行期间的金融冲击，对他们的信用度进行压力测试。中等开发商在规定的逆境中保持稳健。这些表现得益于其强劲的基本面以及国家当局有利的货币、外汇和开放资本账户政策组合。