Import penetration has grown substantially in Australia over the past two decades. This study examines import penetration using a consumer demand approach that distinguishes domestically and foreign-produced varieties. The approach avoids restrictive assumptions such as homotheticity and permits an array of hypothesis tests of a functional form. This study uses an innovative procedure to estimate the model with a relative short time series, which is important for countries with limited data. We show how consistent aggregation leads to a macro-level import demand equation that faithfully reflects the underlying micro-demands. Surprisingly, income growth is mainly responsible for the surge in imports and not for their low cost.

在过去的二十年中，澳大利亚的进口渗透率大幅增长。本研究使用区分国内和国外生产的品种的消费者需求方法检查进口渗透率。该方法避免了类似性等限制性假设，并允许对函数形式进行一系列假设检验。本研究使用创新程序来估计时间序列相对较短的模型，这对于数据有限的国家很重要。我们展示了一致的聚合如何导致宏观层面的进口需求方程，忠实地反映潜在的微观需求。令人惊讶的是，收入增长是进口激增的主要原因，而不是成本低。