Abstract This paper examines whether the 2007 - 2008 global financial crisis (GFC) played any role in changing the state of efficiency for the foreign exchange markets. For comparison purposes, I assess market efficiency based on the forward unbiasedness hypothesis (FUH) as well as the profitability of simple technical trading rules in the form of moving average, momentum, and relative strength index. A general finding from my comparative analysis (the FUH vis-a-vis technical trading rules) reveals that the GFC causes a time variation in the performance of currency markets, but both tests predict opposite conclusions on the direction of the change in the state of market performance. This evidence emphasizes the importance of qualifying the difference between fundamental and technical information when investigating the efficiency of foreign exchange markets.

中文翻译：

---

外汇市场效率与全球金融危机：基本面与技术信息

摘要 本文考察了 2007 - 2008 年全球金融危机 (GFC) 是否在改变外汇市场的效率状态方面发挥了任何作用。出于比较目的，我根据远期无偏假设 (FUH) 以及以移动平均线、动量和相对强弱指数形式的简单技术交易规则的盈利能力来评估市场效率。我的比较分析（FUH 与技术交易规则的对比）的一般发现表明，全球金融危机会导致货币市场的表现随时间变化，但两种测试都对货币状态变化的方向预测了相反的结论。市场业绩。