Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to major learning about the social and economic losses that an external shock to the system can cause. In this paper, we examine some sustainability issues focusing on three key focal points of sustainable development – economic growth, poverty and inequality in the context of climate change. We focus on the inter-relationship between economic growth, investment, labour force participation, energy consumption, poverty and inequality under alternative scenarios using the global framing of Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs). An econometric model is used for estimating the relationship between GDP and its determinants along with fitting a General Quadratic and/or Beta Lorenz curve using the World Bank’s Povcal software for determining the relationship between income, poverty and inequality. Alternative GDP growth paths, redistribution assumptions and poverty lines are used for simulations which reveal the extent of sensitivity of the developmental targets to scenarios up to 2030.

摘要

COVID-19 大流行使人们对系统的外部冲击可能造成的社会和经济损失有了重大了解。在本文中，我们研究了一些可持续性问题，重点关注可持续发展的三个关键焦点——气候变化背景下的经济增长、贫困和不平等。我们使用共享社会经济途径 (SSP) 的全球框架，关注替代情景下经济增长、投资、劳动力参与、能源消耗、贫困和不平等之间的相互关系。计量经济学模型用于估计 GDP 与其决定因素之间的关系，并使用世界银行的 Povcal 软件拟合一般二次曲线和/或 Beta Lorenz 曲线，以确定收入、贫困和不平等之间的关系。