The future habitat and productivity of industrial forest plantations (IFPs) are facing large uncertainties due to global warming. As an important IFP species, Populus deltoides is widely used for afforestation worldwide, serving as a key model species to assess the impact of climate change on potentially suitable area and productivity. Here we first compiled a global productivity dataset of P. deltoides, and then utilized ecological niche models to explore its potential habitat suitability with relations to both soil and climate variables, and for the first time, related it to potential productivity of this species at the global scale. The predicted habitat suitability showed a significant positive relationship with productivity (p < 0.05). We also observed critical abiotic factors, namely the annual mean temperature, mean temperature of the coldest quarter, and the topsoil gravel content, which regulate habitat suitability and stand productivity of P. deltoides. When combining with the two selected climate change scenarios (SSP126 and SSP585), we further projected a potential loss of 2.54–3.32% in the global total productivity of P. deltoides from year 2041 to 2080. In addition to the global-scale predictions, our results also recommend some adaptive management plans: for those areas with projected increase in productivity, enhanced afforestation is recommended, while for those areas with projected decline in productivity, some positive management measures like enhanced irrigation frequency or thinning are recommended. Collectively, this study presents a novel approach for predicting forest productivity of P. deltoides in the context of global change, while providing a scientific basis for adaptive management strategies of this species to mitigate the impact of climate change.

由于全球变暖，工业林人工林 (IFP) 的未来栖息地和生产力面临很大的不确定性。作为重要的IFP树种，Populus deltoides在世界范围内广泛用于造林，是评估气候变化对潜在适宜面积和生产力影响的关键模式树种。在这里，我们首先编译了一个P. deltoides的全球生产力数据集，然后利用生态位模型探索其与土壤和气候变量的关系的潜在栖息地适宜性，并首次将其与该物种在全球范围内的潜在生产力联系起来。预测的栖息地适宜性与生产力呈显着正相关（p < 0.05）。我们还观察到关键的非生物因素，即年平均温度、最冷季度的平均温度和表土砾石含量，这些因素调节了P. deltoides 的栖息地适宜性和林分生产力。当结合两个选定的气候变化情景（SSP126 和 SSP585）时，我们进一步预测P. deltoides全球总生产力的潜在损失为 2.54-3.32%从 2041 年到 2080 年。 除了全球范围的预测，我们的结果还推荐了一些适应性管理计划：对于那些预计生产力增加的地区，建议加强造林，而对于那些预计生产力下降的地区，一些积极的管理计划建议采取加强灌溉频率或间伐等管理措施。总的来说，这项研究提出了一种在全球变化的背景下预测P. deltoides森林生产力的新方法，同时为该物种的适应性管理策略提供了科学依据，以减轻气候变化的影响。