Many of the existing reservoir dams are constructed in alpine and gorge regions, where the topography and geological conditions are complicated, bank slopes are steep, and landslides have a high potential to occur. Surges triggered by landslides in the reservoir are one of the major causes of dam overtopping failures. Many factors affect the slope stability of reservoir banks and the height of surges triggered by landslides, such as spatial variability of material properties, speed of landslides, etc. To reasonably evaluate dam overtopping risk caused by landslide-induced surges is a key technology in engineering that is urgent to be solved. Therefore, a novel risk analysis method for overtopping failures caused by waves triggered by landslides induced by bank instability considering the spatial variability of material parameters is proposed in this study. Based on the random field theory, the simulation method for the spatial variability of material parameters is proposed, and the most dangerous slip surface of the reservoir bank slope is determined with the minimum value of the safety factors. The proxy risk analysis models for both the slope instability and dam overtopping are constructed with the consideration of spatial variability of material parameters, and then the dam overtopping failure risk caused by landslide-induced surges is calculated using the Monte-Carlo sampling. The proposed models are applied to a practical engineering project. Results show that the spatial variability of material properties significantly affects the instability risk of slopes, without considering which the risks of slope instability and dam overtopping may be overestimated. This study gives a more reasonable and realistic risk assessment of dam overtopping failures, which can provide technical support for the safety evaluation and risk control of reservoir dams.

中文翻译：

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考虑材料参数空间变异性的滑坡潮涌引起的大坝漫顶破坏风险分析

现有水库大坝多建在高山峡谷地区，地形地质条件复杂，岸坡陡峭，滑坡发生可能性大。水库山体滑坡引发的涌水是造成大坝漫顶破坏的主要原因之一。影响库岸边坡稳定性和滑坡浪涌高度的因素很多，如材料性质的空间变异性、滑坡速度等。合理评价滑坡浪涌引起的大坝漫顶风险是工程中的一项关键技术。这是亟待解决的问题。所以，考虑到材料参数的空间变异性，提出了一种新的风险分析方法，用于由堤岸不稳定性引起的滑坡引发的波浪引发的越顶破坏。基于随机场理论，提出了材料参数空间变异性的模拟方法，以安全系数的最小值确定库岸边坡最危险的滑移面。考虑材料参数的空间变异性，构建了边坡失稳和大坝漫顶代理风险分析模型，然后利用蒙特卡罗采样计算了滑坡引起的涌浪引起的大坝漫顶破坏风险。所提出的模型应用于实际工程项目。结果表明，材料性质的空间变异性显着影响边坡失稳风险，而未考虑可能高估边坡失稳和坝体漫顶风险的因素。该研究给出了更合理、更现实的大坝漫溢风险评估，可为水库大坝安全评价和风险控制提供技术支持。