Lawsuits concerning the impacts of climate change make causal claims about the effect of defendants’ greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on plaintiffs and have proliferated around the world. Plaintiffs have sought, inter alia, compensation for climate-related losses and to compel governments to reduce their GHG emissions. So far, most of these claims have been unsuccessful. Here we assess the scientific and legal bases for establishing causation and evaluate judicial treatment of scientific evidence in 73 lawsuits. We find that the evidence submitted and referenced in these cases lags considerably behind the state of the art in climate science, impeding causation claims. We conclude that greater appreciation and exploitation of existing methodologies in attribution science could address obstacles to causation and improve the prospects of litigation as a route to compensation for losses, regulatory action and emission reductions by defendants seeking to limit legal liability.

有关气候变化影响的诉讼就被告温室气体 (GHG) 排放对原告的影响提出因果主张，并在世界各地激增。除其他外，原告要求赔偿与气候相关的损失，并要求政府减少温室气体排放。到目前为止，这些索赔中的大多数都没有成功。在这里，我们评估了建立因果关系的科学和法律基础，并评估了 73 起诉讼中科学证据的司法处理。我们发现在这些案例中提交和引用的证据大大落后于气候科学的最新技术水平，阻碍了因果关系的主张。