In response to the dramatic increase in earthquake rates in the central United States, the U.S Geological Survey began releasing 1 yr earthquake hazard models for induced earthquakes in 2016. Although these models have been shown to accurately forecast earthquake hazard, they rely purely on earthquake statistics because there was no precedent for forecasting induced earthquakes based upon wastewater injection data. Since the publication of these hazard models, multiple physics‐based methods have been proposed to forecast earthquake rates using injection data. Here, we use one of these methods to generate earthquake hazard forecasts. Our earthquake hazard forecasts are more accurate than statistics‐based hazard forecasts. These results imply that fluid injection data, where and when available, and the physical implications of fluid injection should be included in future induced earthquake hazard forecasts.

中文翻译：

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使用流体力学地震成核模型预测诱发地震危害

为应对美国中部地震发生率的急剧上升，美国地质调查局于 2016 年开始发布诱发地震的 1 年地震灾害模型。 虽然这些模型已被证明可以准确预测地震灾害，但它们纯粹依赖于地震统计数据因为没有根据废水注入数据预测诱发地震的先例。自从这些灾害模型发表以来，已经提出了多种基于物理学的方法来使用注入数据预测地震率。在这里，我们使用其中一种方法来生成地震灾害预报。我们的地震灾害预测比基于统计的灾害预测更准确。这些结果意味着流体注入数据，无论何时何地可用，