Risks assessment and risks comparison are basic concepts for emergency management. In the fields of earthquake engineering and engineering seismology, the operational earthquake loss forecasting (OELF) is the research frontier for the assessment of short‐term seismic risk. It combines seismicity models, continuously updated based on ground‐motion monitoring (i.e., operational earthquake forecasting), with large‐scale vulnerability models for the built environment and exposure data. With the aim of contributing to the discussion about capabilities and limitations of OELF, the study presented aims at comparing the OELF results and the fatality risk (based on fatality data) related to coronavirus 2019 (COVID‐19) that, at the time of writing, is perceived as very relevant and required unprecedented risk reduction measures in several countries, most notably Italy. Results show that, at a national scale in Italy, the COVID‐19 risk has been higher than the seismic risk during the two pandemic waves even if, at the end of the so‐called lockdown, the evolution of the pandemic suggested the possibility (not realized) of reaching a situation of comparable seismic and COVID‐19 risks in a few weeks. Because the two risks vary at a local scale, risks comparison was also carried out on a regional basis, showing that, before the beginning of the second wave, in some cases, the seismic risk, as assessed by means of OELF, was larger than the pandemic one.

中文翻译：

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比较意大利的短期地震和 COVID-19 死亡风险

风险评估和风险比较是应急管理的基本概念。在地震工程和工程地震学领域，业务地震损失预测（OELF）是短期地震风险评估的研究前沿。它结合了基于地面运动监测（即运营地震预测）不断更新的地震活动模型，以及建筑环境和暴露数据的大规模脆弱性模型。为了促进对 OELF 的能力和局限性的讨论，该研究旨在比较 OELF 结果和与 2019 年冠状病毒 (COVID-19) 相关的死亡风险（基于死亡数据），在撰写本文时，在一些国家被认为非常相关并且需要采取前所未有的降低风险的措施，最显着的是意大利。结果表明，在意大利的全国范围内，即使在所谓的封锁结束时，大流行的演变表明存在这种可能性，但在两次大流行期间，COVID-19 的风险仍高于地震风险。未实现）在几周内达到类似地震和 COVID-19 风险的情况。由于两种风险在局部范围内有所不同，因此还进行了区域性风险比较，结果表明，在第二波开始之前，在某些情况下，通过 OELF 评估的地震风险大于大流行之一。大流行的演变表明有可能（未实现）在几周内达到类似地震和 COVID-19 风险的情况。由于两种风险在局部范围内有所不同，因此还进行了区域性风险比较，结果表明，在第二波开始之前，在某些情况下，通过 OELF 评估的地震风险大于大流行之一。大流行的演变表明有可能（未实现）在几周内达到类似地震和 COVID-19 风险的情况。由于两种风险在局部范围内有所不同，因此还进行了区域性风险比较，结果表明，在第二波开始之前，在某些情况下，通过 OELF 评估的地震风险大于大流行之一。