At present, the effective implementation of emission control areas regulation is faced with the problems of limited inspection capacity and unknown ship behavior. To bridge this gap, this paper quantitatively analyzes the inspection strategy (which arriving ships are selected for inspection) for on-board fuel sampling considering limited inspection capacity and ships’ violation behaviors. We first describe the behaviors of ships by considering economic benefit, social responsibility and other factors to analyze the actual situation. Based on this, a semi-random input model with limited inspection capacity is established and the optimal inspection strategy is obtained. Furthermore, the impacts of related factors on the optimal inspection strategy are analyzed. Finally, measures that based on automatic identification system data are proposed to improve the inspection strategy. The results show that compared to randomly select ships, the method proposed in our study can determine a more reasonable inspection strategy. Additionally, the AIS-based method may be a possible way to improve the inspection strategy.

目前，排放控制区法规的有效实施面临着检查能力有限和船舶行为不明的问题。为弥补这一差距，本文在考虑有限检验能力和船舶违规行为的情况下，定量分析了船上燃料抽样检验策略（选择到达的船舶进行检验）。我们首先综合考虑经济效益、社会责任等因素来描述船舶的行为，分析实际情况。在此基础上，建立了检验能力有限的半随机输入模型，得到最优检验策略。进一步分析了相关因素对最优检测策略的影响。最后，提出了基于自动识别系统数据的改进检测策略的措施。结果表明，与随机选择的船舶相比，我们研究中提出的方法可以确定更合理的检查策略。此外，基于 AIS 的方法可能是改进检查策略的一种可能方式。