While electric vehicles bring numerous environmental benefits during their lifetime, they could be a burden for waste management at the end of life if not managed properly. A circular waste management system, alternatively, suggests exploring the appropriate actions and policies to create the right environment for second-use applications. Such regulatory measures primarily require a temporal estimation of the volume of the end-of-life electric vehicle batteries which helps to distinguish the suitable applications, time, and level of investment in the repurposing market. From an end-of-life flow perspective, the profile of the end-of-life battery stock follows the growth of the electric vehicle market over time and vehicles’ survival age. However, the level of uncertainties about the future trend of these vehicles and their efficiencies makes the end-of-life estimation highly challenging. This paper addresses these uncertainties in end-of-life battery stock estimation in Ireland by (i) modelling the electric vehicle market diffusion based on government policies and customers' preferences, and (ii) estimating electric vehicle lifetime based on a combination of current electric & conventional vehicles. Having the distribution of primary and end-of-life batteries over time, the impact of added value to electric vehicles due to the battery repurposing on their adoption in the first place is investigated. Results confirm the significant influence of government policies on the electric vehicle adoption profile. The temporal estimation of the reuse capacity of the end-of-life batteries indicates that how different levels of regulations and second-use support schemes end up to a different amount of reuse availability in end-of-life battery stock, ranging from several hundred to a few thousand megawatt-hours in 2050. Results also show that to what degree a potential second-use market for end-of-life electric vehicle batteries would increase the growth rate of electric vehicle uptake in Ireland.

虽然电动汽车在其生命周期内带来了许多环境效益，但如果管理不当，它们可能会成为生命末期废物管理的负担。或者，循环废物管理系统建议探索适当的行动和政策，为二次使用应用创造合适的环境。此类监管措施主要需要对报废电动汽车电池的数量进行时间估算，这有助于区分再利用市场的合适应用、时间和投资水平。从报废流量的角度来看，报废电池存量的概况随着电动汽车市场的增长和车辆的生存年龄而变化。然而，这些车辆的未来趋势及其效率的不确定性使得寿命结束估算极具挑战性。本文通过 (i) 根据政府政策和客户偏好对电动汽车市场扩散进行建模，以及 (ii) 基于当前电动汽车的组合估计电动汽车寿命，从而解决爱尔兰报废电池库存估计中的这些不确定性。和传统车辆。随着时间的推移，原电池和报废电池的分布，首先研究了电池再利用对电动汽车附加值的影响。结果证实了政府政策对电动汽车采用情况的重大影响。