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Economic policy uncertainty and leverage dynamics: Evidence from an emerging economy
International Review of Financial Analysis ( IF 8.235 ) Pub Date : 2021-06-25 , DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2021.101836
Yukti Bajaj , Smita Kashiramka , Shveta Singh

We test capital structure adjustments under dynamic trade-off theory using the standard partial adjustment framework, in light of long- and short-run economic policy uncertainties (EPU). Analysing a sample of Indian firms listed on the National Stock Exchange (NSE500) for 2009 to 2018, we report a positive association between EPU and leverage but a negative association between EPU and speed of adjustment. An additional analysis indicates that the positive influence of long-run policy shocks on leverage is channelled through the growth prospects available to them. The leverage of firms in industries that are more sensitive to government subsidies reports a stronger positive association between the two variables both in the long and short run. Also, analysis using the suppliers of credit emphasizes that the increase in cost of debt drives the positive association between EPU and leverage for Indian firms. By delving into the mechanisms that impact the association between EPU and speed of adjustment, we find that the negative impact of EPU on leverage adjustments is moderated through the change in investments and the cost of debt only in the long run. The group affiliated firms display a strong positive association between EPU and leverage but a stronger negative association between EPU and speed of adjustment. Our results are robust across alternative measures of EPU, leverage, technique vis-à-vis endogeneity, large sample (4165 listed Indian companies) and heterogeneities based on firm size.



中文翻译:

经济政策的不确定性和杠杆动态:来自新兴经济体的证据

鉴于长期和短期经济政策的不确定性(EPU),我们使用标准的部分调整框架在动态权衡理论下测试资本结构调整。分析 2009 年至 2018 年在国家证券交易所 (NSE500) 上市的印度公司样本,我们报告 EPU 与杠杆之间存在正相关,但 EPU 与调整速度之间存在负相关。另一项分析表明,长期政策冲击对杠杆的积极影响是通过他们可用的增长前景来实现的。在对政府补贴更敏感的行业中,企业的杠杆作用表明,这两个变量在长期和短期内都具有更强的正相关关系。还,使用信贷供应商的分析强调,债务成本的增加推动了 EPU 与印度公司杠杆之间的正相关关系。通过深入研究影响 EPU 与调整速度关联的机制,我们发现 EPU 对杠杆调整的负面影响仅在长期通过投资和债务成本的变化得到缓和。集团附属公司在 EPU 和杠杆之间显示出强烈的正相关,但在 EPU 和调整速度之间显示出更强的负相关。我们的结果在 EPU、杠杆、技术的替代措施中是稳健的 我们发现 EPU 对杠杆调整的负面影响仅在长期内通过投资和债务成本的变化得到缓和。集团附属公司在 EPU 和杠杆之间显示出强烈的正相关,但在 EPU 和调整速度之间显示出更强的负相关。我们的结果在 EPU、杠杆、技术的替代措施中是稳健的 我们发现 EPU 对杠杆调整的负面影响仅在长期内通过投资和债务成本的变化得到缓和。集团附属公司在 EPU 和杠杆之间显示出强烈的正相关,但在 EPU 和调整速度之间显示出更强的负相关。我们的结果在 EPU、杠杆、技术的替代措施中是稳健的相对于内生性、大样本(4165 家印度上市公司)和基于公司规模的异质性。

更新日期:2021-07-06
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