Purpose

The aim of this study is to examine small area variation in crime trajectories during the COVID-19 pandemic in England and Wales. While we know how police-recorded crime responded to lockdown policies at the ‘macro’ level, less is known about the extent to which these trends were experienced uniformly at localized spatial scales.

Methods

Longitudinal k-means clustering is used to unpick local area variation in police notifiable offences across England and Wales. We describe the clusters identified in terms of their spatial patterning, opportunity structures and crime type profile.

Results

We find that in most small areas, crime remained fairly stable throughout the pandemic. Instead, a small number of meso-level areas contributed a disproportionately large amount to the macro-level trend. These were typically city centers with plentiful pre-pandemic crime opportunities, dominated by theft and shoplifting offences.

Conclusion

Findings offer support for opportunity theories of crime and for a mobility theory of crime during the pandemic. We explore potential implications for policy, theory and further research.

中文翻译：

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英格兰和威尔士 COVID-19 政策对犯罪影响的小区域差异

 目的

本研究的目的是调查英格兰和威尔士 COVID-19 大流行期间犯罪轨迹的小区域变化。虽然我们知道警方记录的犯罪如何在“宏观”层面对封锁政策做出反应，但我们对这些趋势在局部空间尺度上的统一程度知之甚少。

 方法

纵向 k 均值聚类用于消除英格兰和威尔士警方应通报犯罪行为的局部差异。我们根据空间格局、机会结构和犯罪类型概况来描述所识别的集群。

 结果

我们发现，在大多数小地区，犯罪率在整个大流行期间保持相当稳定。相反，少数中观层面的领域对宏观层面趋势的贡献却大得不成比例。这些通常是大流行前有大量犯罪机会的城市中心，主要是盗窃和入店行窃犯罪。

 结论

研究结果为大流行期间的犯罪机会理论和犯罪流动理论提供了支持。我们探索对政策、理论和进一步研究的潜在影响。