We study the aggregate labor force participation behavior of women over a 25-year period in Turkey using a synthetic panel approach. In our decomposition of age, year, and cohort effects, we use three APC models that have received close scrutiny of the demography community. The exercise is repeated by rural/urban status and by education to tease out some key differences in behavior. Our comparative methodology yields remarkably consistent profiles for most subsamples, but not all. Notably all methods reveal an M-shaped age profile attributable to child-bearing related interruptions in rural areas and for low-educated women in urban areas. We also find that younger cohorts among the least-educated women are more likely to participate, contrary to the belief that culture stands in the way. The evidence we compiled confirms that Turkey has reached the turning point of the U-shaped pattern in female labor force participation observed in countries where agriculture initially accounts for a large fraction of employment. We dwell on methodological issues throughout the paper and seek explanations for the occasional fragility of the methods. We establish that evolution of the linear trend present in the cross-section age profiles is responsible for the differences in the findings. Despite the apparent inconsistency, the models we use are consistent in recovering the turning points of the age, period, and cohort profiles.

我们使用综合小组方法研究了土耳其 25 年间女性的总体劳动力参与行为。在我们对年龄、年份和队列效应的分解中，我们使用了三个受到人口统计学界密切关注的 APC 模型。农村/城市状况和教育重复进行这项工作，以梳理出一些关键的行为差异。我们的比较方法为大多数子样本（但不是全部）生成了非常一致的配置文件。值得注意的是，所有方法都揭示了 M 形年龄分布，这归因于农村地区与生育相关的中断以及城市地区受教育程度低的妇女。我们还发现，受教育程度最低的女性中的年轻群体更有可能参与，这与文化阻碍的信念相反。我们收集的证据证实，在农业最初占就业很大一部分的国家中，土耳其已达到女性劳动力参与的 U 形模式的转折点。我们在整篇论文中都在讨论方法论问题，并为这些方法偶尔的脆弱性寻求解释。我们确定横截面年龄分布中存在的线性趋势的演变是导致结果差异的原因。尽管存在明显的不一致，但我们使用的模型在恢复年龄、时期和队列概况的转折点方面是一致的。我们在整篇论文中都在讨论方法论问题，并为这些方法偶尔的脆弱性寻求解释。我们确定横截面年龄分布中存在的线性趋势的演变是导致结果差异的原因。尽管存在明显的不一致，但我们使用的模型在恢复年龄、时期和队列概况的转折点方面是一致的。我们在整篇论文中都在讨论方法论问题，并为这些方法偶尔的脆弱性寻求解释。我们确定横截面年龄分布中存在的线性趋势的演变是导致结果差异的原因。尽管存在明显的不一致，但我们使用的模型在恢复年龄、时期和队列概况的转折点方面是一致的。