This study examines how two factors of population aging, changes in fertility and mortality, will respectively affect South Korea’s economic future. The economic effects of population aging are examined by considering the population in each age group under alternative demographic scenarios. Utilizing recent population projections and South Korea’s National Transfer Accounts, the paper applies a simple decomposition model measuring the respective effects of fertility and mortality on separate aspects of the economy: labor income, private and public consumption, and public and private transfers. The results show that the effects of low fertility and low mortality on the economy are very different in direction, magnitude, timing, and impact by age group. The only effect of an aging population that is the same in all circumstances is the effect on the public pension system: low fertility and mortality will increase pressure on the public pension system of South Korea.

本研究考察了人口老龄化的两个因素，生育率和死亡率的变化，将如何分别影响韩国的经济未来。通过考虑不同人口情景下每个年龄组的人口来检验人口老龄化的经济影响。利用最近的人口预测和韩国的国民转移账户，本文应用了一个简单的分解模型来衡量生育率和死亡率对经济不同方面的各自影响：劳动收入、私人和公共消费以及公共和私人转移。结果表明，低生育率和低死亡率对经济的影响在方向、幅度、时间和年龄组影响方面有很大差异。