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How to simulate international economic sanctions: A multipurpose index modelling illustrated with EU sanctions against Russia
International Economics Pub Date : 2021-06-24 , DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2021.06.004
Morad Bali , Nady Rapelanoro

One of the main challenges economists must face while studying economic sanctions is to simulate them in their models faithfully. It seems extremely hard to achieve without a dedicated variable that precisely imitates coercive economic measures. Thence, this short paper aims to offer a framework for the construction of economic sanction indexes. Researchers can use our multipurpose index modelling to simulate economic punishment in their econometric models. If our work is framed within the Ukrainian crisis case and European economic sanctions against Russia, the method we provide can be used in any other case study. It is a great alternative to the standard use of dummy variables that witness sanctions' implementation and withdrawal. Additionally, our proposal allows calibrating the weight attributed to each sanction depending on its type, the sanction sender's ability to apply economic pressure, and the effect of time on sanctions' effectiveness. The first part of this paper details the methodology and the mathematical formalisation of our framework. It is used to build a sanction index that simulates sanctions against Russia during the Ukrainian crisis. The second part is an empirical study that compares our index to another one from the literature. Results reveal that our new sanction index witnesses the behaviour of sanctions more precisely, which leads to a stronger explanatory power. Moreover, it enhances the statistical significance of impulse-response functions generated by our SVAR models. Consequently, the framework for sanction index construction that is proposed in this paper successfully produced a reliable index that simulates the European Union's sanction against Russia in the Ukrainian crisis case.



中文翻译:

如何模拟国际经济制裁:以欧盟对俄罗斯的制裁为例的多用途指数模型

经济学家在研究经济制裁时必须面临的主要挑战之一是在他们的模型中忠实地模拟它们。如果没有一个精确模仿强制性经济措施的专用变量,这似乎很难实现。因此,这篇短文旨在为构建经济制裁指标提供一个框架。研究人员可以使用我们的多用途指数模型在其计量经济学模型中模拟经济惩罚。如果我们的工作以乌克兰危机案例和欧洲对俄罗斯的经济制裁为框架,我们提供的方法可用于任何其他案例研究。它是标准使用虚拟变量的一个很好的替代方案,这些虚拟变量见证了制裁的实施和撤销。此外,我们的提议允许根据其类型校准归因于每个制裁的权重,制裁发送者施加经济压力的能力,以及时间对制裁有效性的影响。本文的第一部分详细介绍了我们框架的方法论和数学形式化。它用于构建一个制裁指数,模拟乌克兰危机期间对俄罗斯的制裁。第二部分是一项实证研究,将我们的指数与文献中的另一个指数进行比较。结果表明,我们的新制裁指数更准确地见证了制裁的行为,从而具有更强的解释力。此外,它增强了我们的 SVAR 模型生成的脉冲响应函数的统计显着性。因此,本文提出的制裁指数构建框架成功地产生了一个模拟欧盟的可靠指数。

更新日期:2021-08-21
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