Uncertainties from hydrological and meteorological environments constantly pose disturbances to water sustainability. Programming under such uncertainties aims at finding solutions to this risky condition. From the sight of uncertain water availability, this paper builds a water life cycle model to reduce the risks of inappropriate estimations of water availability within a river basin and incorporates the results in robust programming. Then, a policy-driven scenario analysis is conducted to provide managerial implications in terms of ongoing water-saving policies. With Min–Tuo river basin as the case, we finally reach the conclusions that: (1) Equity is a necessity when considering the water allocation in a river basin, which enables a more sustainable mode of local water use. (2) Local citizens’ willingness to follow the policies is a key to relieve the water pressure, while the progress of water-saving techniques could add to its effectiveness.

水文和气象环境的不确定性不断干扰水资源的可持续性。在这种不确定性下进行编程旨在为这种危险情况找到解决方案。从水资源可用性的不确定性来看，本文构建了一个水生命周期模型，以降低流域内水资源可用性估算不当的风险，并将结果纳入稳健规划。然后，进行政策驱动的情景分析，以提供正在进行的节水政策方面的管理影响。以闽沱流域为例，我们最终得出以下结论：（1）在考虑流域内的水资源分配时，公平是必要的，这使得当地水资源利用模式更加可持续。