This paper examines the role of skill-biased and skill-neutral technical change for productivity and employment. Thereby, we explore the puzzling macro development in Germany, witnessing job miracle and productivity debacle in parallel. In the literature, skill-biased technical change (SBTC) is known as an important driving factor for labour markets. We measure SBTC using comprehensive micro data and construct a structural macroeconometric framework identified by long-run restrictions. The results show that weaker SBTC explains 69 percent of the productivity slowdown since the early 2000s. Skill-biased technology shocks have a negative and skill-neutral technology shocks a positive hours effect. Twenty-five percent of the hours upswing since 2005 can be explained by reduced pressure from SBTC. Moreover, we analyse routine-biased technical change (RBTC) and find productivity and hours effects comparable to SBTC. However, only the latter can explain the job miracle – productivity debacle puzzle, since RBTC does not flatten substantially in the 2000s.

本文考察了技能偏向和技能中立的技术变革对生产力和就业的作用。因此，我们探索了德国令人费解的宏观发展，同时见证了工作奇迹和生产力崩溃。在文献中，以技能为导向的技术变革 (SBTC) 被认为是劳动力市场的重要驱动因素。我们使用全面的微观数据衡量 SBTC，并构建了一个由长期限制确定的结构性宏观经济计量框架。结果表明，较弱的 SBTC 解释了自 2000 年代初以来生产力下降的 69%。技能偏向的技术冲击具有负面影响，而技能中立的技术冲击具有积极的小时效应。自 2005 年以来，25% 的小时数上升可以用 SBTC 的压力降低来解释。而且，我们分析了常规偏向技术变更 (RBTC)，并发现了与 SBTC 相当的生产力和工时影响。然而，只有后者才能解释工作奇迹——生产力崩溃之谜，因为 RBTC 在 2000 年代并没有大幅趋于平缓。