Agriculture is being encouraged to become carbon neutral, and agricultural land is being touted as a source of carbon sequestration. Yet making agricultural regions locally carbon neutral will involve an economic cost, with existing patterns of greenhouse gas emissions and spatial costs of abatement affecting that cost of achieving regional carbon neutrality. This study examines the economic cost of locally achieving carbon neutrality, using the illustration of Western Australia’s agricultural region. The cost to the region of achieving carbon neutrality via reforestation is estimated, as is the spatial allocation of farmland for sequestration. Social and political pressures that likely constrain how much farmland can be reforested are explicitly considered. Findings are subject to a sensitivity analysis and several caveats. The annual cost of regional carbon neutrality via proscribed regional reforestation, under current carbon offset prices, is estimated to range from AUD216 million to AUD250 million (i.e. under 3 per cent of the region’s gross value of agricultural production) which might suggest the challenge to be carbon neutral is within commercial reach. However, without other financial incentives, it likely involves farm business profits being reduced by around 15 per cent.

中文翻译：

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农业的碳中和挑战：西澳大利亚州的案例*

鼓励农业实现碳中和，农业用地被吹捧为固碳来源。然而，使农业地区在当地实现碳中和将涉及经济成本，现有的温室气体排放模式和减排空间成本会影响实现区域碳中和的成本。本研究以西澳大利亚农业区为例，考察了当地实现碳中和的经济成本。估计该地区通过重新造林实现碳中和的成本，以及用于封存的农田空间分配。明确考虑了可能限制可以重新造林多少农田的社会和政治压力。调查结果需要进行敏感性分析和一些注意事项。根据目前的碳抵消价格，通过禁止的区域重新造林实现区域碳中和的年度成本估计在 2.16 亿至 2.5 亿澳元（即低于该区域农业生产总值的 3%）之间，这可能表明面临的挑战是碳中和在商业范围内。然而，如果没有其他经济激励措施，农场企业利润可能会减少约 15%。