Regional demographic change is often conceptualized as a circular process, where out-migration continuously worsens conditions of population ageing and shrinkage. Thus, if migration acts as a consequence as well as cause of ageing, migration patterns should be influenced by the age structure of origin and destination regions. This paper analyses individual-level migration decisions of full-time employees across 326 German regions between 1997 and 2013 using binary choice models. The results show that individuals are more likely to migrate out of and less likely to migrate towards ageing regions. Moreover, the identified patterns are consistent with age-selective migration reinforcing ageing processes and polarization of demographic structure.

中文翻译：

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旧区吸引力下降了吗？人口老龄化背景下的区域间劳动力迁移

区域人口变化通常被概念化为一个循环过程，向外迁移不断恶化人口老龄化和萎缩的状况。因此，如果移民既是老龄化的结果，也是老龄化的原因，则移民模式应该受到原籍和目的地地区年龄结构的影响。本文使用二元选择模型分析了 1997 年至 2013 年间德国 326 个地区的全职员工的个人迁移决策。结果表明，个人更有可能迁移出老龄化地区，而迁移到老龄化地区的可能性更小。此外，所确定的模式与年龄选择性迁移加强老龄化过程和人口结构的两极分化是一致的。