While it is recognised that there are varying uncertainty characteristics between industry sectors, there is little uncertainty research directly related to engineer-to-order (ETO) systems. A novel method is developed to identify the factors contributing to uncertainty in shipbuilding first-tier suppliers that inhibit the effective and efficient delivery of ETO products. The empirical data set comes from case-specific workshops involving cross-disciplinary staff from engineering, production, purchasing, planning and sales. The protocol included presentations by the researchers and the company, tours of the shopfloor and interactive sessions. The latter used ‘brown-paper’ exercises to map customer penetration-point locations, identify where uncertainties occurred and evaluate their impact-likelihood. The customer penetration-point mapping identified two ETO types; redesign-to-order (RTO) and innovate-to-order (ITO). The major challenges faced by ITO systems are caused through failures in (a) properly understanding customer requirements and translating those to product specification, (b) providing capacity and capability in engineering design teams at both first- and second-tier suppliers, (c) managing interfaces from customer through to second-tier suppliers. Engineering processes in RTO systems have poor customer configuration protocols leading to complex, overengineered products without pre-existing bill of materials. Engineering and production processes at both first- and second-tier RTO suppliers have extended lead-times with poor capacity availability. A change programme is suggested to reduce uncertainty requiring primary consideration of process and control aspects before addressing demand-side and then supply-side changes. The findings are evaluated by independent interviews indicating that the method and tools adopted have validity, and that the findings are commensurate with wider industry expectations.

虽然认识到行业部门之间存在不同的不确定性特征，但几乎没有与按订单设计 (ETO) 系统直接相关的不确定性研究。开发了一种新方法来确定导致造船一级供应商不确定性的因素，这些因素阻碍了 ETO 产品的有效和高效交付。经验数据集来自特定案例的研讨会，涉及工程、生产、采购、规划和销售的跨学科员工。该协议包括研究人员和公司的介绍、车间参观和互动会议。后者使用“棕色纸”练习来绘制客户渗透点位置，确定发生不确定性的位置并评估其影响可能性。客户渗透点映射确定了两种 ETO 类型；按订单重新设计 (RTO) 和按订单创新 (ITO)。ITO 系统面临的主要挑战是由于 (a) 未能正确理解客户需求并将其转化为产品规格，(b) 为一级和二级供应商的工程设计团队提供能力和能力，(c)管理从客户到二级供应商的接口。RTO 系统中的工程流程具有糟糕的客户配置协议，导致没有预先存在的材料清单的复杂、过度设计的产品。一级和二级 RTO 供应商的工程和生产流程延长了交货时间，但产能可用性较差。建议采用变更计划来减少不确定性，在解决需求方和供应方的变更之前，需要首先考虑过程和控制方面。调查结果通过独立访谈进行评估，表明所采用的方法和工具是有效的，并且调查结果与更广泛的行业预期相称。