Introduction: Traffic collisions are a principal cause of death in Europe, disproportionately affecting young drivers. Driving safety depends not only on our ability to anticipate and respond to dangers on the road but also on the level of risk we are willing to engage within our own driving behaviour.
Methods: Hazard prediction (HPr) and risky decision-making (RDM) tests were given to three groups of young Spaniards (169 participants): 54 non-drivers (M= 20), 65 novice (M= 21) and, 50 experienced drivers (M= 26 years old). Both tests presented participants with video clips of driving recorded from the driver’s perspective. The HPr test contained hazardous situations caused by the actions of another road user (eg, a pedestrian crossing the road). Each HPr clip was occluded as a hazard began to unfold and participants were asked to predict “what happens next?” They selected their answer from four on-screen options. The RDM test used clips where any imminent danger would be provoked by the film-car driver’s risky behaviour (eg, overtaking illegally). Participants were asked to report the probability of following certain types of risky behaviour (eg, “Would you go forward with the lights on amber?” or “Would you overtake the cyclist/lorry/bus at this point?”). In addition, the effect of the locality of the driving scenarios was manipulated: they could take place in the participant’s native country (Spain) or in a different country (UK).
Results: Non-drivers and novice drivers were less able to predict upcoming hazards and more likely to make risky decisions. Driving scenarios from another country (UK) provoked riskier decisions than those from the participants’ home country (Spain).
Conclusion: Improvement in HPr skills among novice or new drivers poses a huge challenge as far as driver training is concerned, though it is only part of the solution. Young inexperienced drivers’ willingness to engage in risky behaviour also needs to be tackled. Our results suggest that such RDM can be assessed in a similar way to HPr skill, using a naturalistic approach, which raises the possibility of assessing and training drivers on a wider range of safety-related behaviours.

Keywords: driving, hazard detection, anticipation, hazard perception, risk estimation, decision taking


中文翻译：

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风险决策和危险预测呈负相关，可以使用驾驶录像进行独立评估

简介：交通事故是欧洲的主要死亡原因，对年轻司机的影响尤为严重。驾驶安全不仅取决于我们预测和应对道路危险的能力，还取决于我们愿意在自己的驾驶行为中承担的风险水平。
方法：对三组年轻的西班牙人（169 名参与者）进行危险预测 (HPr) 和风险决策 (RDM) 测试：54 名非驾驶员（M= 20）、65 名新手（M= 21）和 50 名有经验的人司机 ( M =26岁）。两项测试都向参与者展示了从驾驶员角度记录的驾驶视频剪辑。HPr 测试包含由其他道路使用者（例如，行人过马路）的行为引起的危险情况。当危险开始显现时，每个 HPr 剪辑都被遮挡，参与者被要求预测“接下来会发生什么？” 他们从屏幕上的四个选项中选择了答案。RDM 测试使用的剪辑是电影汽车司机的冒险行为（例如，非法超车）会引发任何迫在眉睫的危险。参与者被要求报告遵循某些类型的危险行为的可能性（例如，“你会在琥珀色的灯下继续前进吗？”或“此时你会超越骑自行车的人/卡车/公共汽车吗？”）。此外，还操纵了驾驶场景的局部性影响：
结果：非驾驶者和新手驾驶者预测即将发生的危险的能力较低，并且更有可能做出有风险的决定。来自另一个国家（英国）的驾驶场景比参与者本国（西班牙）的驾驶场景引发的决策风险更高。
结论：就驾驶员培训而言，提高新手或新驾驶员的 HPr 技能是一个巨大的挑战，尽管这只是解决方案的一部分。还需要解决年轻缺乏经验的司机愿意从事危险行为的问题。我们的研究结果表明，这种 RDM 可以通过与 HPr 技能类似的方式进行评估，使用自然主义方法，这提高了评估和培训驾驶员更广泛的安全相关行为的可能性。

关键词：驾驶、危险检测、预测、危险感知、风险估计、决策