Purpose

This study aims to develop a model for project portfolio selection considering organizational goals such as budgets, sustainability cash flow and reinvestment strategy under an uncertain environment.

Design/methodology/approach

A multi-objective mathematical programming model is proposed for project selection, which takes the social, environmental and financial aspects into account as the objectives of the project portfolio selection problem. The project evaluation and selection process in one of the large capitals in the Middle East with numerous urban construction projects was considered as a real case study, in which the subjects of environmental and social sustainability are of great importance. Then, the most significant criteria for project evaluation and selection based on sustainability were identified and ranked using the fuzzy best-worst method (BWM).

Findings

The criterion of “defining clear and real objectives” was ranked first, “project investment return period” was ranked second, “minimum changes in the predicted range” was ranked third, and the other ten sustainability indicators were ranked as well. Next, the presented mathematical programming model was solved using the augmented e-constraint method. The sensitivity analysis indicated that increasing the amount of investments in projects would increase their net present value. Also, increased investment had no effect on sustainability, while decreased investment caused sustainability to not being optimal.

Originality/value

This study focuses on the impact of the amount of investments on projects, and the associated costs of sustainable projects. Further to the authors' knowledge, there has been no relevant study taking uncertainty into account. Also, very few studies proposed a mathematical programming model for the project portfolio selection problem. Moreover, this research uses the brainstorming and Delphi method to identify the sustainability indicators influencing the organization and screens the evaluation indicators. Furthermore, the weights of the evaluation indicators are determined using the fuzzy BWM based on the consistency of opinions.

中文翻译：

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考虑不确定环境下可持续性的再投资策略优化项目组合选择：一种多目标优化方法

目的

本研究旨在开发一个项目组合选择模型，该模型考虑了不确定环境下的预算、可持续性现金流和再投资策略等组织目标。

设计/方法/方法

提出了一种多目标数学规划模型进行项目选择，将社会、环境和财务方面考虑作为项目组合选择问题的目标。在拥有众多城市建设项目的中东大型首都之一的项目评估和选择过程被视为一个真实的案例研究，其中环境和社会可持续性主题非常重要。然后，使用模糊最佳-最差方法 (BWM) 确定和排名基于可持续性的项目评估和选择的最重要标准。

发现

“确定明确、真实的目标”排名第一，“项目投资回报期”排名第二，“预测范围内变化最小”排名第三，其他十项可持续发展指标也排名第一。接下来，使用增强的电子约束方法求解所提出的数学规划模型。敏感性分析表明，增加项目投资金额将增加其净现值。此外，增加投资对可持续性没有影响，而减少投资导致可持续性不是最优的。

原创性/价值

本研究侧重于投资金额对项目的影响，以及可持续项目的相关成本。进一步据作者所知，没有考虑到不确定性的相关研究。此外，很少有研究为项目组合选择问题提出数学规划模型。此外，本研究采用头脑风暴法和德尔菲法来识别影响组织的可持续发展指标并筛选评估指标。此外，基于意见的一致性，使用模糊BWM确定评价指标的权重。