Searches for gravitational-wave counterparts have been going in earnest since GW170817 and the discovery of AT2017gfo. Since then, the lack of detection of other optical counterparts connected to binary neutron star or black hole–neutron star candidates has highlighted the need for a better discrimination criterion to support this effort. At the moment, low-latency gravitational-wave alerts contain preliminary information about binary properties and hence whether a detected binary might have an electromagnetic counterpart. The current alert method is a classifier that estimates the probability that there is a debris disc outside the black hole created during the merger as well as the probability of a signal being a binary neutron star, a black hole–neutron star, a binary black hole, or of terrestrial origin. In this work, we expand upon this approach to both predict the ejecta properties and provide contours of potential light curves for these events, in order to improve the follow-up observation strategy. The various sources of uncertainty are discussed, and we conclude that our ignorance about the ejecta composition and the insufficient constraint of the binary parameters by low-latency pipelines represent the main limitations. To validate the method, we test our approach on real events from the second and third Advanced Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO)–Virgo observing runs.

中文翻译：

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使用低延迟引力波数据产品预测电磁对应物

自 GW170817 和 AT2017gfo 的发现以来，对引力波对应物的搜索一直在认真进行。从那时起，由于没有检测到与双中子星或黑洞-中子星候选相关的其他光学对应物，因此需要更好的辨别标准来支持这项工作。目前，低延迟引力波警报包含有关双星特性的初步信息，因此检测到的双星是否可能具有电磁对应物。当前的警报方法是一个分类器，它估计在合并过程中产生的黑洞外有碎片盘的概率，以及信号是双中子星、黑洞-中子星、双黑洞的概率，或来自陆地。在这项工作中，我们扩展了这种方法来预测喷射物的特性并为这些事件提供潜在光曲线的轮廓，以改进后续观察策略。讨论了各种不确定性来源，我们得出结论，我们对喷射物成分的无知以及低延迟管道对二元参数的约束不足是主要限制。为了验证该方法，我们在第二个和第三个高级激光干涉仪引力波天文台 (LIGO)-Virgo 观测运行的真实事件上测试了我们的方法。我们得出结论，我们对喷射物成分的无知以及低延迟管道对二元参数的约束不足是主要限制。为了验证该方法，我们在第二个和第三个高级激光干涉仪引力波天文台 (LIGO)-Virgo 观测运行的真实事件上测试了我们的方法。我们得出结论，我们对喷射物成分的无知以及低延迟管道对二元参数的约束不足是主要限制。为了验证该方法，我们在第二个和第三个高级激光干涉仪引力波天文台 (LIGO)-Virgo 观测运行的真实事件上测试了我们的方法。