Changes in temperature and rainfall patterns can have marked impacts on small mammal populations that inhabit environments with highly fluctuating water availability. With projected increases in droughts and fewer but more intense rainfall events in the Southwestern United States, the persistence of many wildlife populations may be threatened. Our goal was to assess how temperature and rainfall during distinct dry and wet seasons influenced the dynamics of a population of big-eared woodrats (Neotoma macrotis) in a mixed oak woodland of coastal central California. We applied Pradel’s temporal symmetry models to our 21-year biannual capture–mark–recapture data set (1993–2014) to determine the effects of climatic factors on the woodrats’ apparent survival (Φ) and recruitment rate (f). Monthly Φ averaged 0.945 ± 0.001 and varied with season. Monthly f was 0.064 ± 0.001 in the wet season (f was fixed to 0 in the dry season). Monthly population growth rate (λ) varied from 0.996 ± 0.001 during the dry season to 1.001 ± 0.001 during the wet season, which indicated a stable population (0.999 ± 0.001). Total rainfall from the previous season and mean temperature during the same season positively influenced Φ and f. By contrast, Φ and f were negatively influenced by mean temperature from the previous season and total rainfall in the same season. The resulting λ fluctuated with total rainfall, particularly in the wet season. Our results suggest that the big-eared woodrat population may not be substantially affected by warm temperatures per se, potentially because of the microclimate provided by its stick houses. We also discuss its adaptability to local food resources and relatively slow life history relative to other cricetids, and propose that the big-eared woodrat population may be equipped to cope with future climate change.

中文翻译：

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大耳林鼠、大耳鼠的气候因素和人口统计

温度和降雨模式的变化可能会对居住在水资源高度波动的环境中的小型哺乳动物种群产生显着影响。随着预计美国西南部干旱的增加和更少但更强烈的降雨事件，许多野生动物种群的持续存在可能会受到威胁。我们的目标是评估不同干湿季节的温度和降雨如何影响加利福尼亚中部沿海混合橡树林中大耳林鼠 (Neotoma macrotis) 种群的动态。我们将 Pradel 的时间对称模型应用于我们的 21 年半年捕获-标记-重新捕获数据集（1993-2014），以确定气候因素对林鼠表观存活率 (Φ) 和补充率 (f) 的影响。每月 Φ 平均值为 0.945 ± 0.001，随季节变化。雨季每月 f 为 0.064 ± 0.001（旱季 f 固定为 0）。月人口增长率（λ）从旱季的 0.996 ± 0.001 到雨季的 1.001 ± 0.001 变化，表明人口稳定（0.999 ± 0.001）。上一季的总降雨量和同一季节的平均气温对 Φ 和 f 有正向影响。相比之下，Φ 和 f 受到上一季平均气温和同季总降雨量的负面影响。由此产生的 λ 随总降雨量而波动，特别是在雨季。我们的研究结果表明，大耳林鼠种群本身可能不会受到温暖温度的实质性影响，这可能是由于其木屋提供的小气候。