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Linking air quality, health, and economic effect models for use in air pollution epidemiology studies with uncertain factors
Atmospheric Pollution Research ( IF 3.9 ) Pub Date : 2021-06-24 , DOI: 10.1016/j.apr.2021.101118
Long Ta Bui , Phong Hoang Nguyen , Duyen Chau My Nguyen

Epidemiological studies have shown that premature mortality, hospital admission, and outpatient visits are closely related to particulate matter (PM) pollution. The modelling of air quality, assessment of human health impact, and estimation of health impact models are useful tools for assessing the impact of air pollution on health. This study proposes a model framework for assessing air pollution damage, including air quality simulation for PM10, assessment of human health impacts, and estimation of health impact models that meet the requirements of actual monitoring data. The novel contribution of this study is a proposal for the application of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)/Community Multiscale Air Quality Modeling System (CMAQ) model and the epidemiological coefficient β of concentration–response functions (CRFs), which were determined from epidemiological studies and selected in accordance with the study area conditions under limited conditions related to the field measurement data, to calculate the health impacts and economic losses caused by PM10. Calculation results for a typical month in 2017 showed that economic losses were approximately 125.119 million Vietnamese Dong (95% CI: −26.841, 272.633), in which the highest number of mortality and morbidity due to PM10 dust pollution exposure was identified on October 24, 2017. The WRF/CMAQ simulation results were calibrated and validated to improve the efficiency of the estimation. These validated results were mainly based on the measured data, which played a significant role in enhancing the accuracy of the quantification of air pollution effects.



中文翻译:

将用于空气污染流行病学研究的空气质量、健康和经济效应模型与不确定因素联系起来

流行病学研究表明,过早死亡、住院和门诊就诊与颗粒物(PM)污染密切相关。空气质量建模、人类健康影响评估和健康影响模型估计是评估空气污染对健康影响的有用工具。本研究提出了一个评估空气污染损害的模型框架,包括 PM 10 的空气质量模拟、人类健康影响评估,以及符合实际监测数据要求的健康影响模型估计。本研究的新贡献是对天气研究和预报 (WRF)/社区多尺度空气质量建模系统 (CMAQ) 模型和浓度-响应函数 (CRF) 的流行病学系数 β 的应用提出了建议,这些系数由下式确定流行病学研究,根据研究区条件,在有限条件下选择相关的现场测量数据,计算PM 10造成的健康影响和经济损失. 2017年典型月份的计算结果显示,经济损失约为12511.9万越南盾(95% CI:-26.841、272.633),其中PM 10粉尘污染暴露导致的死亡率和发病率最高的是10月24日, 2017. 对 WRF/CMAQ 模拟结果进行了校准和验证,以提高估算效率。这些验证结果主要基于实测数据,对提高空气污染效应量化的准确性起到了重要作用。

更新日期:2021-06-24
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