This research studies the effect of climate change on the hydrological behavior of two semi-arid basins. For this purpose, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used with the simulation of two future climate change scenarios, one Representative Concentration Pathway moderate (RCP 4.5) and the other extreme (RCP 8.5). Three future periods were considered: close (2019–2040), medium (2041–2070), and distant (2071–2100). In addition, several climatic projections of the EURO-CORDEX model were selected, to which different bias correction methods were applied before incorporation into the SWAT model. The statistical indices for the monthly flow simulations showed a very good fit in the calibration and validation phases in the Upper Mula stream (NS = 0.79–0.87; PBIAS = −4.00–0.70%; RSR = 0.44–0.46) and the ephemeral Algeciras stream (NS = 0.78–0.82; PBIAS = −8.10–−8.20%; RSR = 0.4–0.42). Subsequently, the impact of climate change in both basins was evaluated by comparing future flows with those of the historical period. In the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, by the end of the 2071–2100 period, the flows of the Upper Mula stream and the ephemeral Algeciras stream will have decreased by between 46.3% and 52.4% and between 46.6% and 55.8%, respectively.

中文翻译：

---

使用 SWAT 模型评估半干旱集水区 EURO-CORDEX 区域气候模拟的流量

本研究研究了气候变化对两个半干旱盆地水文行为的影响。为此，将土壤和水评估工具 (SWAT) 模型与两种未来气候变化情景的模拟结合使用，一种是典型的中等浓度路径 (RCP 4.5)，另一种是极端的 (RCP 8.5)。考虑了三个未来时期：近（2019-2040）、中（2041-2070）和远（2071-2100）。此外，还选择了 EURO-CORDEX 模型的几个气候预测，在纳入 SWAT 模型之前对其应用了不同的偏差校正方法。月流量模拟的统计指数显示出非常适合上穆拉河（NS = 0.79–0.87；PBIAS = -4.00–0.70%；RSR = 0.44–0.46）和短暂的阿尔赫西拉斯河的校准和验证阶段（NS = 0。78–0.82；PBIAS = −8.10–−8.20%；RSR = 0.4–0.42）。随后，通过将未来流量与历史时期的流量进行比较，评估了气候变化对两个流域的影响。在 RCP 4.5 和 RCP 8.5 情景中，到 2071-2100 年末，上穆拉河和短暂的阿尔赫西拉斯河的流量将分别减少 46.3% 到 52.4% 和 46.6% 到 55.8% .