Increasing mean ocean temperatures, due to climate change, are recognized as one of the biggest threats to marine ecosystems and the goods and services they provide. The vulnerability of an organism to climate change can be projected as a function of sensitivity and exposure during growth. These projections have becoming increasingly necessary to improve ecosystem and resource management. We estimate how ocean warming will impact crab populations of commercial interest on the tropical and subtropical Atlantic coast. A compile of laboratory data was used to estimate the temperature dependence of survival and development for Ucides cordatus and Menippe nodifrons. A decrease in mean survival probability and mean development time, under ocean warming scenarios through 2100 are projected. Lower survival probabilities and development time were projected for lower latitudes compared to higher latitudes. Increasing temperatures along the Atlantic coast will likely impact larval settlement with consequences for population maintenance and connectivity among populations. As indirect consequences, ecological and economic disturbances are expected.

由于气候变化，平均海洋温度升高被认为是对海洋生态系统及其提供的商品和服务的最大威胁之一。生物体对气候变化的脆弱性可以预测为生长过程中敏感性和暴露的函数。这些预测对于改善生态系统和资源管理变得越来越必要。我们估计海洋变暖将如何影响热带和亚热带大西洋沿岸具有商业利益的螃蟹种群。使用实验室数据汇编来估计 Ucides cordatus 和 Menippe nodifrons 生存和发育的温度依赖性。预计到 2100 年，在海洋变暖情景下，平均生存概率和平均发展时间会减少。与高纬度地区相比，低纬度地区的生存概率和发育时间预计较低。大西洋沿岸气温升高可能会影响幼虫定居，从而影响种群维持和种群之间的连通性。作为间接后果，预计会出现生态和经济干扰。