Abstract

Capital structure optimization is an important aspect to ensure the success of public–private partnership (PPP) financing. Existing optimization methods fail to provide certain confidence level of the optimization result of PPP capital structure. The aim of this paper to optimize the capital structure of PPP projects by developing a chance-constrained programming (CCP) method with a certain confidence level under project risks. The results show that compared with existing methods, CCP method yields a greater optimal equity share, smaller NPV value, and higher confidence level depending on private sector’s risk preference. Besides, the optimal equity share is mainly determined by banks’ requirement and government regulation on commitment and it shrinks as banks’ risk preference grows. Theoretical calculation and simulation technique were adopted to make the result more convincing. The paper can help the private sector to more reasonably and reliably determine the optimal capital structure according to their risk preference.

摘要

资本结构优化是确保公私合作（PPP）融资成功的一个重要方面。现有的优化方法无法对PPP资本结构的优化结果提供一定的置信度。本文旨在通过开发一种在项目风险下具有一定置信度的机会约束规划 (CCP) 方法来优化 PPP 项目的资本结构。结果表明，与现有方法相比，CCP方法根据私营部门的风险偏好产生更大的最优股权份额、更小的NPV值和更高的置信度。此外，最优股权份额主要由银行的要求和政府对承诺的监管决定，并随着银行风险偏好的增长而缩小。采用理论计算和仿真技术使结果更具说服力。本文可以帮助私营部门根据其风险偏好更合理、更可靠地确定最优资本结构。