Accurate passenger demand forecasting of high-speed railway is of great significance for railway line planning and daily operation management. Capturing the random factors hidden in complex data is the key to achieve accurate forecasting. In view of this, this paper presents a new system with deterministic and probabilistic forecasting capacities based on the residual component disposing. First, the passenger demand is decomposed into trend, seasonality components and remainder using seasonal and trend decomposition using loess. Most likely some weak but indispensable information may still be contained in the remainder component, and random incidents occurred in the past may also occur in the future. Thus, moving block bootstrap is employed to bootstrap the remainder and generate one thousand similar samples by virtue of extrapolating the disaggregated subseries, thereby simulating the stochastic feature of future series. The forecasts of similar sample are acquired through reaggregating the results of extrapolations. Eventually, the bagging predictors is applied to attain the deterministic and probabilistic prediction. Two real-world case study manifests that the proposed hybrid system provides a more accurate assessment of passenger demand than all the benchmark models in various aspects, and the theoretical framework established in this paper is of certain enlightening significance for dealing with complex data.

准确预测高铁客运需求对铁路线路规划和日常运营管理具有重要意义。捕捉隐藏在复杂数据中的随机因素是实现准确预测的关键。鉴于此，本文提出了一种基于残差成分处理的具有确定性和概率性预测能力的新系统。首先，使用季节性和使用黄土的趋势分解将乘客需求分解为趋势、季节性成分和剩余部分。很可能一些微弱但必不可少的信息可能仍然包含在剩余部分中，过去发生的随机事件也可能在未来发生。因此，移动块自举用于自举剩余部分并通过外推分解的子序列生成一千个相似样本，从而模拟未来序列的随机特征。相似样本的预测是通过重新聚合外推结果获得的。最终，bagging 预测器被应用于实现确定性和概率性预测。两个真实世界的案例研究表明，所提出的混合系统在各个方面比所有基准模型提供了更准确的乘客需求评估，并且本文建立的理论框架对处理复杂数据具有一定的启发意义。相似样本的预测是通过重新聚合外推结果获得的。最终，bagging 预测器被应用于实现确定性和概率性预测。两个真实世界的案例研究表明，所提出的混合系统在各个方面比所有基准模型提供了更准确的乘客需求评估，并且本文建立的理论框架对处理复杂数据具有一定的启发意义。相似样本的预测是通过重新聚合外推结果获得的。最终，bagging 预测器被应用于实现确定性和概率性预测。两个真实世界的案例研究表明，所提出的混合系统在各个方面比所有基准模型提供了更准确的乘客需求评估，并且本文建立的理论框架对处理复杂数据具有一定的启发意义。