An integrated simulation-optimization modeling system (ISOMS) approach was developed for assessing adaptive strategies in response to coupled impacts of climate and landuse variations. The ISOMS can not only reflect future hydrological trends under changing environment, but also provide water-allocation plans under various uncertainties expressed as random or fuzzy feature systematically. A case study of Anning River Basin with dry and warm characteristics in the upper Yangtze River was applied to inspect the model's applicability. A range of alternatives to adaptive strategies were generated under combinations of climate and landuse scenarios with different satisfaction levels. Results reveal that: (i) there exist increasing trend of temperature and precipitation in future period (2021–2050); (ii) the streamflow variation is more sensitive to climate change than landuse change; (iii) the hydrologic system uncertainties would lead to changes in water resources allocation; (iv) a low level of uncertainty satisfaction or a high level of violation risk would reduce the system reliability for the water resources system. The ISOMS approach has tremendous significance for evaluating hydrologic variations with complicated uncertainties, and providing optimal water allocation schemes responding to the coupled impacts of climate and landuse variations among society, economy and environment.

开发了一种综合模拟优化建模系统 (ISOMS) 方法，用于评估响应气候和土地利用变化耦合影响的适应性策略。ISOMS不仅可以反映变化环境下未来的水文趋势，还可以系统地提供以随机或模糊特征表示的各种不确定性下的水资源分配方案。以长江上游具有干暖特征的安宁河流域为例，检验了该模型的适用性。在具有不同满意度的气候和土地利用情景组合下，产生了一系列适应性战略的替代方案。结果表明：（i）未来一段时间（2021-2050年）气温和降水有增加趋势；(ii) 流量变化对气候变化比土地利用变化更敏感；(iii) 水文系统的不确定性会导致水资源配置的变化；(iv) 低水平的不确定性满意度或高水平的违规风险会降低水资源系统的系统可靠性。ISOMS方法对于评估具有复杂不确定性的水文变化，提供最佳水资源分配方案以应对气候和土地利用变化在社会、经济和环境之间的耦合影响具有重要意义。(iv) 低水平的不确定性满意度或高水平的违规风险会降低水资源系统的系统可靠性。ISOMS方法对于评估具有复杂不确定性的水文变化，提供最佳水资源分配方案以应对气候和土地利用变化在社会、经济和环境之间的耦合影响具有重要意义。(iv) 低水平的不确定性满意度或高水平的违规风险会降低水资源系统的系统可靠性。ISOMS方法对于评估具有复杂不确定性的水文变化，提供最佳水资源分配方案以应对气候和土地利用变化在社会、经济和环境之间的耦合影响具有重要意义。