This paper establishes that the worldwide distribution of political instability has its deep historical roots in genetic diversity, predetermined over the prehistoric course of the exodus of Homo sapiens from East Africa tens of thousands of years ago. It proposes that the relationship between prehistorically determined genetic diversity and contemporary political instability follows a U-shaped pattern. More specifically, genetic diversity at first reduces the persistence of political instability by increasing the opportunity cost of engaging in riots and revolts. However, genetically fragmented societies tend to suffer from interpersonal mistrust and the under-provision of public goods, which plausibly undermine the establishment of politically stable regimes. Using an ancestry-adjusted index of predicted genetic diversity, this paper consistently finds precise estimates that genetic diversity imparts a U-shaped influence on different measures of political instability and the probability of observing the occurrence of riots and revolts across 141 countries. Furthermore, the contribution of genetic diversity to political instability is at least partially mediated through income/productivity levels, the provision of public goods, income inequality and social trust.

中文翻译：

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遗传特征与骚乱有关吗？史前决定的遗传多样性的政治遗产*

本文确立了政治不稳定的全球分布在遗传多样性中有着深厚的历史根源，在史前智人外逃的过程中预先确定。数万年前来自东非。它提出史前决定的遗传多样性与当代政治不稳定之间的关系遵循 U 形模式。更具体地说，遗传多样性首先通过增加参与骚乱和叛乱的机会成本来减少政治不稳定的持续性。然而，基因分裂的社会往往遭受人际不信任和公共物品供应不足的困扰，这可能会破坏政治稳定政权的建立。使用祖先调整的预测遗传多样性指数，本文一致地发现，遗传多样性对政治不稳定的不同衡量标准以及观察到 141 个国家发生骚乱和叛乱的概率产生 U 型影响的精确估计。此外，遗传多样性对政治不稳定的贡献至少部分是通过收入/生产力水平、公共产品的提供、收入不平等和社会信任来调节的。