Utilizing data from 133 countries over the period 1950–2014, we identify fiscal space as a key factor underlying the cyclicality of fiscal policies. We find that less fiscal space induces greater fiscal procyclicality and show that this relationship is nonlinear; countries in the bottom tail of the fiscal space distribution need to make significant improvements before they can perform countercyclical policy. Given the increasingly dominant role of fiscal action in downturns, as is highlighted during the Covid-19 crisis, these findings clearly indicate the importance of building fiscal space in good times to provide capacity for countercyclical policy in bad times.

中文翻译：

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财政空间和财政政策的顺周期性：阳光普照时做干草的理由

利用 133 个国家在 1950 年至 2014 年期间的数据，我们将财政空间确定为财政政策周期性的关键因素。我们发现较小的财政空间会导致较大的财政顺周期性，并表明这种关系是非线性的；财政空间分配底部尾部的国家需要做出重大改进，才能实施逆周期政策。鉴于财政行动在经济衰退中的主导作用越来越大，正如 Covid-19 危机期间所强调的那样，这些调查结果清楚地表明，在经济繁荣时期建立财政空间以在经济衰退时期为反周期政策提供能力的重要性。