In 1978, a revolution in Iran succeeded in toppling Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. After the Shah was forced to leave the country, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, one of the leaders of the revolution, returned from his exile in France to become the Supreme Leader of Iran. In this paper, we investigate the economic cost of the revolution using the synthetic control method. According to our estimates, we conclude that after the emergence of the revolution, the annual real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in Iran declined by about 20.15% on average relative to its synthetic counterpart without the revolution in the period 1978–1980. If Iran had not faced such a revolution, the accumulated per capita GDP would have been $6,479 higher, which amounts to an average annual loss of about $2,159 over that period.

中文翻译：

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革命的经济成本：伊朗案例。综合控制分析

1978年，伊朗的一场革命成功推翻了Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi。在沙阿被迫离开该国后，革命领袖之一阿亚图拉鲁霍拉霍梅尼从流亡法国归来，成为伊朗最高领袖。在本文中，我们使用综合控制方法研究了革命的经济成本。根据我们的估计，我们得出结论，在 1978 年至 1980 年期间，伊朗的年人均实际国内生产总值（GDP）相对于没有革命的合成对应物平均下降了约 20.15%。如果伊朗没有面临这样的革命，累积的人均国内生产总值将增加 6,479 美元，这相当于在此期间平均每年损失约 2,159 美元。