This paper applies business cycle accounting methodology to analyze the sources of aggregate fluctuations in Thai economy, especially during the recent severe recessions in 1997–1998 and 2008–2009. This exploration helps researchers uncover possible shocks and frictions that drive business cycle in a small and open economy within a minimal model set-up. Under this methodology, a fluctuation in aggregate output can be accounted for by exogenous time-varying wedges, namely efficiency wedge, investment wedge, labor wedge, government wedge, etc. This study found that the efficiency wedge is essential in accounting for aggregate output, consumption and investment fluctuation, while the bond wedge, which only present in an open economy setting, is a prime factor in accounting for movement in current accounts. I conducted counterfactual experiments to see what accounts for the output drop during recent recessions. I find that the efficiency wedge played a key role in recent recessions in Thailand, while the investment wedge was accounted for slow economic recovery after the recessions.

中文翻译：

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泰国经济中的冲击和摩擦：从商业周期会计的角度来看

本文运用商业周期会计方法来分析泰国经济总体波动的来源，特别是在 1997-1998 年和 2008-2009 年最近的严重衰退期间。这种探索有助于研究人员在最小的模型设置内发现推动小型开放经济体商业周期的可能冲击和摩擦。在这种方法下，总产出的波动可以通过外生的时变楔来解释，即效率楔、投资楔、劳动力楔、政府楔等。本研究发现，效率楔对于总产出的核算至关重要，消费和投资波动，而仅在开放经济环境中出现的债券楔子是解释经常账户变动的主要因素。我进行了反事实实验，以了解最近经济衰退期间产出下降的原因。我发现效率楔子在泰国最近的经济衰退中发挥了关键作用，而投资楔子则被认为是衰退后经济复苏缓慢的原因。