Purpose

When a successful policy intervention for small firm growth is ending, a continuation decision may be relevant. However, immediately after program termination, solid analysis of the growth of the treated firms in comparison with similar firms cannot be produced, so decision makers rely on less valid data. Moreover, the decision process is challenging because many players, alternative programs, decision levels and financial sources tend to be part of the process. In such a complex and volatile policy environment, successful programs may well be discontinued despite a clear continuation need. The purpose of the paper is to explore this weakness.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper identifies four fundamental principles that are conducive for a rational continuation choice: “additionality,” “substitution,” “need” and “success”. It argues that if these principles are fulfilled, the rational choice would be to continue the program. To demonstrate that this rational outcome does not always happen in practice, an extreme case fulfilling the four principles well was selected.

Findings

The program aimed to enhance growth in small firms through manager training. It encompassed about 700 growth-oriented small firms in three years and was comprehensively evaluated after program termination. This evaluation demonstrated a high success rate of the program in all respects, including in terms of achieved growth compared to a control group of similar firms.

Originality/value

This discontinuation case suggests that non-rational reasoning plays a significant role in contemporary complex and volatile policy environments, which again points to a need for reform in this policy area.

中文翻译：

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小企业政策计划的短期偏见：探索成功增长计划的终止

目的

当对小企业增长的成功政策干预结束时，继续决策可能是相关的。然而，在项目终止后，无法立即对处理过的公司与类似公司的增长进行可靠的分析，因此决策者依赖于不太有效的数据。此外，决策过程具有挑战性，因为许多参与者、替代计划、决策级别和财务来源往往是该过程的一部分。在如此复杂多变的政策环境中，尽管有明确的延续需求，但成功的项目很可能会被终止。本文的目的就是探索这个弱点。

设计/方法/方法

该论文确定了有利于理性延续选择的四个基本原则：“附加性”、“替代性”、“需要”和“成功”。它认为，如果这些原则得到满足，理性的选择将是继续该计划。为了证明这种合理的结果在实践中并不总是发生，我们选择了一个很好地满足四个原则的极端案例。

发现

该计划旨在通过管理人员培训促进小公司的发展。三年内囊括了约700家成长型小企业，并在项目终止后进行了综合评估。该评估表明该计划在各个方面都具有很高的成功率，包括与类似公司的对照组相比实现的增长。

原创性/价值

这一中断案例表明，非理性推理在当代复杂多变的政策环境中发挥着重要作用，这再次表明该政策领域需要改革。