The Amazon rainforest covers roughly 40% of Colombia’s territory and has important global ecological functions. For more than 50 years, an internal war in the country has shaped this region. Peace negotiations between the government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) initiated in 2012 resulted in a progressive de-escalation of violence and a complete ceasefire in 2016. This study explores the role of different deforestation drivers including armed conflict variables, in explaining deforestation for three periods between 2001 and 2015. Iterative regression analyses were carried out for two spatial extents: the entire Colombian Amazon and a subset area which was most affected by deforestation. The results show that conflict variables have positive relationships with deforestation; yet, they are not among the main variables explaining deforestation. Accessibility and biophysical variables explain more variation. Nevertheless, conflict variables show divergent influence on deforestation depending on the period and scale of analysis. Based on these results, we develop deforestation risk maps to inform the design of forest conservation efforts in the post-conflict period.

亚马逊雨林约占哥伦比亚领土的 40%，具有重要的全球生态功能。50 多年来，该国的内战塑造了该地区。政府与哥伦比亚革命武装力量 (FARC) 于 2012 年启动的和平谈判导致暴力逐步降级并于 2016 年完全停火。本研究探讨了包括武装冲突变量在内的不同森林砍伐驱动因素的作用，以解释2001 年至 2015 年三个时期的森林砍伐。对两个空间范围进行了迭代回归分析：整个哥伦比亚亚马逊地区和受森林砍伐影响最大的子区域。结果表明，冲突变量与森林砍伐呈正相关；然而，它们不是解释森林砍伐的主要变量。可及性和生物物理变量解释了更多的变化。然而，冲突变量对森林砍伐的影响取决于分析的时期和规模。基于这些结果，我们开发了森林砍伐风险图，为冲突后时期的森林保护工作设计提供信息。