Tomato brown rugose fruit virus (ToBRFV) is an emerging pathogen affecting tomato-production systems in several countries, including Mexico. This situation involves challenges due to the negative impact on yield and the lack of disease-management measures. This work analyzes the spatiotemporal distribution of ToBRFV in commercial tomato greenhouses. The presence or absence of diseased plants was evaluated weekly, assigning a location in space (x, y). Temporal analysis consisted of fitting the incidence to the monomolecular, logistic, log-logistic, Gompertz, exponential, Weibull, and Richard models, evaluated using the Akaike information criterion, significance, correlation, coefficient of determination, and root mean square error. Spatial analysis consisted of determining spatial aggregation using the Moran, Fisher, and Lloyd indices. In addition, spatial distribution was assessed by sequence observations, point patterns using the inverse distance index, and analysis by SADIE distance indicators. Results indicated that the logistic models (log-logistic and logistic) best described the temporal progress of ToBRFV. This disease also had slightly aggregated patterns in the initial phase, highly aggregated in the exponential phase, and uniform in the deceleration and stationary phases. This study demonstrates that the spatial and temporal dynamics of ToBRFV have important implications for the monitoring, diagnosis, management, and risk prediction of this disease.

中文翻译：

---

商业番茄温室中番茄褐纹果病毒的时空分析

番茄褐色皱纹果实病毒(ToBRFV) 是一种新出现的病原体，影响包括墨西哥在内的多个国家的番茄生产系统。由于对产量的负面影响和缺乏疾病管理措施，这种情况带来了挑战。这项工作分析了 ToBRFV 在商业番茄温室中的时空分布。每周评估是否存在患病植物，在空间 (x, y) 中指定一个位置。时间分析包括将发生率拟合到单分子、logistic、log-logistic、Gompertz、指数、Weibull 和 Richard 模型，使用 Akaike 信息标准、显着性、相关性、决定系数和均方根误差进行评估。空间分析包括使用 Moran、Fisher 和 Lloyd 指数确定空间聚合。此外，空间分布通过序列观察、使用逆距离指数的点模式和 SADIE 距离指标分析来评估。结果表明，逻辑模型（对数逻辑和逻辑）最好地描述了 ToBRFV 的时间进程。这种疾病在初始阶段也有轻微聚集模式，在指数阶段高度聚集，在减速期和静止期均匀。这项研究表明，ToBRFV 的时空动态对这种疾病的监测、诊断、管理和风险预测具有重要意义。结果表明，逻辑模型（对数逻辑和逻辑）最好地描述了 ToBRFV 的时间进程。这种疾病在初始阶段也有轻微聚集模式，在指数阶段高度聚集，在减速期和静止期均匀。这项研究表明，ToBRFV 的时空动态对这种疾病的监测、诊断、管理和风险预测具有重要意义。结果表明，逻辑模型（对数逻辑和逻辑）最好地描述了 ToBRFV 的时间进程。这种疾病在初始阶段也有轻微的聚集模式，在指数阶段高度聚集，在减速和静止阶段均匀。这项研究表明，ToBRFV 的时空动态对这种疾病的监测、诊断、管理和风险预测具有重要意义。