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Causal Approach to Determining the Environmental Risks of Seabed Mining
Environmental Science & Technology ( IF 10.8 ) Pub Date : 2021-06-21 , DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.1c01241 Laura Kaikkonen 1, 2 , Inari Helle 2, 3, 4 , Kirsi Kostamo 5 , Sakari Kuikka 1 , Anna Törnroos 6 , Henrik Nygård 5 , Riikka Venesjärvi 3 , Laura Uusitalo 5
Environmental Science & Technology ( IF 10.8 ) Pub Date : 2021-06-21 , DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.1c01241 Laura Kaikkonen 1, 2 , Inari Helle 2, 3, 4 , Kirsi Kostamo 5 , Sakari Kuikka 1 , Anna Törnroos 6 , Henrik Nygård 5 , Riikka Venesjärvi 3 , Laura Uusitalo 5
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Mineral deposits containing commercially exploitable metals are of interest for seabed mineral extraction in both the deep sea and shallow sea areas. However, the development of seafloor mining is underpinned by high uncertainties on the implementation of the activities and their consequences for the environment. To avoid unbridled expansion of maritime activities, the environmental risks of new types of activities should be carefully evaluated prior to permitting them, yet observational data on the impacts is mostly missing. Here, we examine the environmental risks of seabed mining using a causal, probabilistic network approach. Drawing on a series of expert interviews, we outline the cause-effect pathways related to seabed mining activities to inform quantitative risk assessments. The approach consists of (1) iterative model building with experts to identify the causal connections between seabed mining activities and the affected ecosystem components and (2) quantitative probabilistic modeling. We demonstrate the approach in the Baltic Sea, where seabed mining been has tested and the ecosystem is well studied. The model is used to provide estimates of mortality of benthic fauna under alternative mining scenarios, offering a quantitative means to highlight the uncertainties around the impacts of mining. We further outline requirements for operationalizing quantitative risk assessments in data-poor cases, highlighting the importance of a predictive approach to risk identification. The model can be used to support permitting processes by providing a more comprehensive description of the potential environmental impacts of seabed resource use, allowing iterative updating of the model as new information becomes available.
中文翻译：
确定海底采矿环境风险的因果方法
含有商业上可开采金属的矿床对于深海和浅海区域的海底矿物开采都具有重要意义。然而，海底采矿的发展受到活动实施及其对环境影响的高度不确定性的支撑。为避免海上活动的肆意扩张，在允许新类型活动之前应仔细评估其环境风险，但有关影响的观测数据大多缺失。在这里，我们使用因果概率网络方法检查海底采矿的环境风险。通过一系列专家访谈，我们概述了与海底采矿活动相关的因果路径，为定量风险评估提供信息。该方法包括 (1) 与专家建立迭代模型，以确定海底采矿活动与受影响的生态系统组成部分之间的因果关系，以及 (2) 定量概率建模。我们在波罗的海展示了这种方法，在那里海底采矿已经过测试并且生态系统得到了很好的研究。该模型用于提供替代采矿情景下底栖动物群死亡率的估计值，提供一种量化手段来突出采矿影响的不确定性。我们进一步概述了在数据不足的情况下实施定量风险评估的要求，强调了风险识别预测方法的重要性。
更新日期：2021-07-06
中文翻译：
确定海底采矿环境风险的因果方法
含有商业上可开采金属的矿床对于深海和浅海区域的海底矿物开采都具有重要意义。然而，海底采矿的发展受到活动实施及其对环境影响的高度不确定性的支撑。为避免海上活动的肆意扩张，在允许新类型活动之前应仔细评估其环境风险，但有关影响的观测数据大多缺失。在这里，我们使用因果概率网络方法检查海底采矿的环境风险。通过一系列专家访谈，我们概述了与海底采矿活动相关的因果路径，为定量风险评估提供信息。该方法包括 (1) 与专家建立迭代模型，以确定海底采矿活动与受影响的生态系统组成部分之间的因果关系，以及 (2) 定量概率建模。我们在波罗的海展示了这种方法，在那里海底采矿已经过测试并且生态系统得到了很好的研究。该模型用于提供替代采矿情景下底栖动物群死亡率的估计值，提供一种量化手段来突出采矿影响的不确定性。我们进一步概述了在数据不足的情况下实施定量风险评估的要求，强调了风险识别预测方法的重要性。
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