This paper uses international commodity prices and local natural resource endowments as a source of plausibly exogenous variation in local Chilean economic conditions to study how these shocks impact fertility behavior of families in a small, emerging open economy where non-marital fertility is common but parental obligations are not well enforced. We find that these commodity shocks lead to an increase in the number of births and the birth rate. We argue that these results are consistent with most women experiencing an income effect and a limited substitution effect from commodity booms. This is confirmed by looking at groups that would have experienced a larger income than substitution effect: higher-order births, births within marital relationships, and those by mothers who do not experience an increase in their employment probability respond more strongly to these commodity booms.

本文使用国际大宗商品价格和当地自然资源禀赋作为智利当地经济状况可能的外生变化的来源，研究这些冲击如何影响一个小型新兴开放经济体中家庭的生育行为，在这种经济中，非婚生育很普遍，但父母有义务没有得到很好的执行。我们发现这些商品冲击导致出生人数和出生率增加。我们认为，这些结果与大多数女性经历了收入效应和商品繁荣带来的有限替代效应是一致的。通过观察收入大于替代效应的群体可以证实这一点：高阶生育、婚姻关系中的生育、