We estimate fiscal multipliers for Austria in a framework of model uncertainty emanating from the choice of a particular econometric model. We present a comprehensive framework that allows to assess the effects of different multiplier definitions and choices related to the data, the model employed, and further technical choices associated with the specification of the model exert on fiscal multiplier estimates. The mean present-value government spending multiplier over all models entertained, based on around 3,000 estimates, is 0.68. Estimates of the peak spending multiplier for Austria tend to be larger than present-value spending multipliers, with a mean value of 0.85. The magnitude of the present-value tax multiplier is relatively high, with an average value across specifications of −1.12 and the mean peak tax multiplier is −0.54 for all specifications used.

中文翻译：

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小型开放经济体中的财政乘数：以奥地利为例

我们在模型不确定性的框架中估计了奥地利的财政乘数，该模型不确定性源于选择特定的计量经济模型。我们提出了一个全面的框架，允许评估与数据相关的不同乘数定义和选择、采用的模型以及与模型规范相关的进一步技术选择对财政乘数估计的影响。根据大约 3,000 个估计，所有模型的平均现值政府支出乘数为 0.68。奥地利峰值支出乘数的估计值往往大于现值支出乘数，平均值为 0.85。现值税收乘数的幅度相对较高，各规格的平均值为 -1.12，平均峰值税收乘数为 -0。