How integrated are agricultural markets in conflict-affected states? We answer this question by examining the dynamics of monthly price series of rice, maize and sorghum across eleven cities (markets) of Somalia. Using conflict as a source of transaction costs between spatially connected markets, we examine its role in price transmission between the markets in a panel smooth transition regression framework. We find that in the case of rice—an imported cereal grain—conflict tends to reduce the speed of price transmission between markets. By contrast, we find no evidence of conflict-related transaction costs in the case of maize and sorghum—commodities that are locally produced, particularly in the central and southern parts of Somalia. In all instances, we find that there is some degree of spatial integration among cereal markets around the country, perhaps partly due to informal institutions that can bridge the divides created by conflict, distance and internal political fragmentation. These findings add crucial detail to the literature concerned with the role of commodity prices on poverty and food security in conflict-affected states.

中文翻译：

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受冲突影响国家的价格传导：来自索马里谷物市场的证据

受冲突影响国家的农业市场一体化程度如何？我们通过检查索马里 11 个城市（市场）的大米、玉米和高粱的月度价格序列动态来回答这个问题。使用冲突作为空间连接市场之间交易成本的来源，我们在面板平滑过渡回归框架中检验其在市场之间价格传递中的作用。我们发现，就大米（一种进口谷物）而言，冲突往往会降低市场之间价格传导的速度。相比之下，我们没有发现任何证据表明玉米和高粱是当地生产的商品，特别是在索马里中部和南部地区，与冲突相关的交易成本。在所有情况下，我们发现全国谷物市场之间存在一定程度的空间整合，部分原因可能是非正式机构可以弥合冲突、距离和内部政治分裂造成的分歧。这些发现为有关商品价格对受冲突影响国家贫困和粮食安全的作用的文献增加了重要细节。