This study takes the 39-day Glasgow Subway closure in July 2016 as a natural experiment to evaluate the effect of subway closure on bike-sharing trips. We find that bike-sharing trips increased by 20.7% for incoming trips and 20.1% for outgoing trips on average for each bike station in the proximity of subway station during the subway suspension. Some of this change persisted, with 12.4% of the increased bike-sharing trips remaining after the resumption of the subway service. Our findings suggest that first, subway and bike-sharing trips are substitutes; second, this temporary service disruption was not enough to break commuters’ long-term habits, and third, the diversion factors implied by our results are much lower than the recommended values for UK cities.

本研究将 2016 年 7 月格拉斯哥地铁关闭 39 天作为自然实验，以评估地铁关闭对共享单车出行的影响。我们发现，在地铁停运期间，地铁站附近每个自行车站的共享单车出行平均增加了 20.7% 和 20.1%。这种变化在一定程度上持续存在，在地铁服务恢复后，12.4% 的共享单车出行增加。我们的研究结果表明，首先，地铁和共享单车出行是替代品；第二，这种暂时的服务中断不足以打破通勤者的长期习惯，第三，我们的结果所暗示的分流因素远低于英国城市的推荐值。