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Characteristics of Zambia's agricultural sector and the role for agricultural policy: Insights from CGE modelling
Structural Change and Economic Dynamics ( IF 5.059 ) Pub Date : 2021-06-22 , DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2021.06.008
Stephen Mulanda Mulanda , Cecilia Punt

The Zambian economy does not follow the standard structural transformation pattern because agriculture's declining share in GDP corresponds to an increase in the share of services and not manufacturing. This paper establishes the relevance of capital as well as transaction costs in structural transformation using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. It is found that reducing transaction costs plays a significant role in aiding structural transformation through increases in value-added for all agricultural processing activities in the economy. When capital stock is increased in addition to the transaction cost decreases, the effects are enhanced. This highlights the importance of complementing production policies with market policies to achieve optimal development results. In the combined simulation labour moved out of agriculture to industry with the quantity of labour employed increasing relatively more for the agricultural processing subsector. The paper also confirms a well-known finding that agricultural led economic growth is poverty-reducing.



中文翻译:

赞比亚农业部门的特征和农业政策的作用:来自 CGE 模型的见解

赞比亚经济并未遵循标准的结构转型模式,因为农业在 GDP 中所占份额的下降对应于服务业而非制造业份额的增加。本文使用可计算一般均衡 (CGE) 模型建立了结构转型中资本和交易成本的相关性。研究发现,通过增加经济中所有农业加工活动的附加值,降低交易成本在帮助结构转型方面发挥着重要作用。在交易成本降低的同时增加资本存量,则效果增强。这凸显了以市场政策补充生产政策以实现最佳发展成果的重要性。在联合模拟中,劳动力从农业转向工业,农业加工子行业的劳动力数量增加相对较多。该论文还证实了一个众所周知的发现,即农业带动的经济增长正在减少贫困。

更新日期:2021-06-30
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