Abstract

The effects on human health and life have been catastrophic and its adverse economic effects have been profound, as many countries are engaged in lockdowns, social distancing, mobility, and other restrictions. These have caused unprecedented disruptions in production, distribution, consumption, supply chains, tourism, trade, investments, among others. This paper utilises a simple conceptual framework to anticipate the potential adverse impacts of the pandemic on the economy focussing specifically on output, employment, and prices. The anticipated potential outcomes on the above-mentioned global indicators are assessed utilising publicly available data and information. Both qualitative and quantitative information are utilised which are obtained from various primary and secondary sources. Consistent with the potential outcomes, the paper finds and reports severe adverse impact of the pandemic on global production, employment, and prices. Finally, the paper discusses policy responses to combat the crisis by governments and international organisations and discusses some business implications.

摘要

对人类健康和生活的影响是灾难性的，其不利的经济影响是深远的，因为许多国家都在实施封锁、社会疏远、流动和其他限制措施。这些已经在生产、分销、消费、供应链、旅游、贸易、投资等方面造成了前所未有的中断。本文利用一个简单的概念框架来预测大流行对经济的潜在不利影响，特别关注产出、就业和价格。上述全球指标的预期潜在结果是利用可公开获得的数据和信息进行评估的。利用从各种主要和次要来源获得的定性和定量信息。与潜在结果一致，该文件发现并报告了大流行对全球生产、就业和价格的严重不利影响。最后，本文讨论了政府和国际组织应对危机的政策反应，并讨论了一些商业影响。