ABSTRACT

Lisbon Airport, the most important in Portugal, has reached its capacity due to an enormous boost to the tourism sector. To address this, a new airport in Montijo, which would receive point-to-point flights, has been proposed. This article assesses the optimal time to invest in a new airport using real options analysis and utility theory. It also considers the option to defer and the benefits of clarifying uncertain demand. The results show that the investment opportunity value is superior to the net present value, and it would be better to defer the investment until demand reaches the threshold. The decision to invest is contingent on future demand recovering following the negative impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the air transport sector. This paper contributes to the literature by empirically assessing an infrastructural investment project that has major implications for the social welfare of Portugal.

摘要

由于旅游业的巨大推动，葡萄牙最重要的里斯本机场已达到其容量。为了解决这个问题，已经提议在蒙蒂霍建立一个新机场，该机场将接收点对点航班。本文使用实物期权分析和效用理论评估投资新机场的最佳时间。它还考虑了推迟的选择以及澄清不确定需求的好处。结果表明，投资机会价值优于净现值，最好将投资推迟到需求达到阈值。投资决定取决于在 COVID-19 大流行对航空运输部门的负面影响之后未来需求的恢复。